Boston Super Blog

Time is up. I’d say put down your pens and pencils, but now most NCAA Tournament brackets are filled out on-line in some way, shape or form. It’s time to stop reading the numerous blogs and columns. Many office pools require the brackets to be turned in by the close of day on Wednesday, while others will accept them until noon on Thursday. If yours are still open, then make sure to read this and take from it what you will.

Tip # 1 – don’t get too flashy. No #16 seed has ever defeated a #1 seed. Will it happen some day? – Short answer, yes. But don’t run the odds of ruining your entire bracket by picking that monumental upset. It is not going to happen this year. That being said, advance all four #1’s into the second round.

Tip # 2 – do the same exact thing with all four #2 seeds. Yes, a #15 has defeated a #2 on a few occasions. None have taken place over the last six years, and I just don’t see it happening this year. Too many of these #2’s could have been a #1. Advance all of the #2’s onto the second round.

Tip # 3 – a #3 seed has only lost to a #14 seed twice in the last six years. It happens almost as infrequently as a #2 going out in the first round. Oakland could have the best shot at giving Pittsburgh a run based on their matchup, although I just don’t see that taking place. The #3’s all win as well.

Bracket time!

Tip # 4 – now it gets a little interesting. A #4 has lost to a #13 six times over the last six years. That translates to an astonishing 25% over that span. This year we could see any or all of the #4’s potentially getting upset. The schools are that close. When filling out your bracket, make sure to pick at least one of these upsets and hope for the best. Just to make it interesting this year, I am going with two of these lower seeds to win – Siena and Murray State, although I would not be stunned if Houston or Wofford move on either.

Tip # 5 – ah, the dreaded #5 seeds vs. the #12 seed. History dictates that you select at least one #12 to win, and furthermore, pick that team to win their next game as well as move to the Sweet 16. Over the last six years, almost half of the #5’s have been upset. So again, history says you should pick at least one, but which has the best shot? The Michigan State/New Mexico State matchup is interesting. New Mexico State is on fire as of late, but Tom Izzo always has his Spartans at the top of their game come tourney time. What about Texas A&M vs. Utah State? Utah State also played well down the stretch, but I think A&M has too much size for them. How about Butler vs. UTEP? No one even wanted UTEP in the big dance, so will they silence their critics, or will they prove they were better suited for the NIT? That brings us to Temple vs. Cornell. Both schools are terribly under-seeded here. Both were in the Top 25 toward the end of the season, and both had big games – Temple defeated Villanova and Cornell gave Kansas a run for their money. Both teams deserve to be seeded higher, and I really like Cornell. I do not, however, see them knocking off the Owls. This year, like 2007, no #12 advances. Push along all four #5’s.

Tip # 6 – the #6 vs. the #11 also produces its fair share of upsets. This year, perhaps more than others, all four #11 seeds are almost on par with the #6’s. Choose carefully. I like Minnesota to pull off the upset, but the other three contests should be close as well.

Tip # 7 – I really don’t feel that you can call it an upset when a #10 beats a #7 or especially when a #9 beats a#8. Those are not true upsets. Advance who you see fit based on who you believe is a better team, regardless of the seeds. I like all four of the #10’s to move on, while I like Louisville and Northern Iowa as the #9 seed winners.

Tip # 8 – in Round 2, you should go more with the grain. Sure, some major underdogs will come out on top, but you need to go with the lower seeds in general. I only have three higher seed going onto the Sweet 16 based on my first round predictions. Marquette will get by New Mexico, Siena will knock off Texas A&M, and Notre Dame will defeat Baylor. Hey, it’s St. Patrick’s Day. How can I not pick the Irish?

Tip # 9 – Round 3 should be very close. For the most part, the cream has risen to the top, and the pretenders are whittled out by the contenders. Go with the best team and look for the team with the most playmakers. It is their time to shine. Kansas, Kentucky & Duke have too many to bow out yet. While Ohio State does have the Player of the Year in Evan Turner, Georgetown has a hot trio of Chris Wright, Greg Monroe and Austin Freeman. The Hoyas win. Syracuse has Wesley Johnson. Even if Arinze Onuaku does not suit up, the Orange are too good. Scottie Reynolds will be dominant for Villanova, and West Virginia and Pittsburgh are too strong for Marquette and Kansas State.

Tip # 10 – Onto the Regional Finals. No flukes here. These teams have all gotten to this point for a reason. Kansas is too deep for Georgetown and Duke extracts their revenge on Villanova for their annihilation last year. Syracuse and Pittsburgh will have an old fashioned Big East battle, but the Panther will advance (sorry, Josh). Finally, the streaking Mountaineers of West Virginia will prove to be too much for a very young, though talented Kentucky squad (changed this pick from a few days ago when I had Kentucky in the finals).

Tip # 11 – we have reached the Final Four. Here, keep it simple. Kansas trounces Pitt, while Duke ekes it out against West Virginia. Enough said.

Tip # 12 – finally, Kansas gets past Duke in a high scoring game that will feature a record setting number of three pointers made and attempted. The Jayhawks cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

Tip # 13 – there you have it, my friends. Follow these simple tips and you will win your pool. If you are looking for a huge upsets of teams to really advance, perhaps even as far as the Elite Eight, then look no further than the Georgia Tech vs. Oklahoma State and the Temple vs. Cornell winner. Both have big game potential. If it turns out that by some fluke I am wrong, let me know as the tournament takes place. Feel free to post a message. Good luck!!!