Boston Super Blog

When the 2013 NCAA Tournament Brackets were revealed, many casual fans will simply look at the top seeds when predicting which teams will advance to the Final Four. Serious fans know that many No. 1 teams could not hold onto the top ranking so often throughout this past season that they will assuredly pick quite a few upsets to occur throughout the tournament. Picking the best teams to advance to the Final Four is common knowledge. So is predicting bold upsets. After all, it is March Madness. So, which theory is the right one in 2013?

Neither. Or both. Or…

Many, including myself, have called the 2013 NCAA Tournament the most wide open field in the history of college basketball. Top teams lose. Upsets happen. But does that means that this will finally be the year that a No. 16 defeats a No. 1 seed?

Short answer? No.

Sure, it is possible. College basketball and the 2013 NCAA Tournament prove that anything is possible. But possible and likely are two entirely separate entities. Could the Louisville Cardinals, Kansas Jayhawks, Indiana Hoosiers or Gonzaga Bulldogs lose their first game in the second round? Absolutely. Would I predict it to happen in any of the brackets that I have filled out or am planning to fill out in the coming hours? No chance.

So, there is your first bold prediction. Even in a wide open year of March Madness action, all four No. 1 seeds will win their first game. Write it down.

Now, for some more not-so-obvious predictions that some may be able to actually call bold upsets.

* You know about the whole No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed thing, right? Almost every year, a 12 beats a 5, but picking the right one is not always easy. This year, people love the Oregon Ducks to upset the Oklahoma State Cowboys, due to the slighting that the Ducks received after winning the PAC 12 Tournament. I’m not buying it. While the Ducks are a talented team, the Cowboys are solid. As long as Marcus Smart plays like his last name indicates and stays out of foul trouble, I like the ‘Pokes to advance. No upset here.

* With that being said, which is the likeliest No. 12 seed to pull off the traditional upset? I think that the Mississippi Rebels have a shot against the Wisconsin Badgers, but I would still be hesitant to pick them. I also feel that the California Golden Bears may give the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels a good game, but I don’t know about that one either. I don’t like the Akron Zips at all against the VCU Rams. Therefore, what I am saying is that I’m just not sold that a No. 12 will upset a No. 5 this year.

* That is not to say that I do not like any upsets this tournament. While many focus too much on the 12 vs. 5 theory, I pay closer attention to the No. 11 vs. No. 6 games. You want a bold prediction for upset specials? Here it is. When filling out your brackets, advance all four No. 11 seeds past the No. 6 seeds. I cannot guarantee that all four will pull off the upsets, but I truly feel as if at least two of them will survive and advance. Bet the St. Mary’s Gaels, Belmont Bruins, Minnesota Golden Gophers and Bucknell Bison to upset the Memphis Tigers, Arizona Wildcats, UCLA Bruins and Butler Bulldogs. How is that for bold?

* Will the No. 11 seeds be the biggest long shots to pull off an upset? I really don’t know. I know a lot of people are picking the Syracuse Orange and Michigan Wolverines to fall to the Montana Grizzlies and South Dakota State Jackrabbits. I am not one of those people. I don’t have the Orange or Big Blue going far, but they will win their first games.

* I do like  a pair of No. 10 seeds to knock off a couple of No. 7 seeds, although they are only minor upsets. Those two teams are the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners over the San Diego State Aztecs. I think both have an outside chance at winning their next game over a No. 2 seed as well, but would not go as far as predicting the huge upset.

* When looking deep into the bracket, the only double digit seed I have advancing to the Sweet 16 is Bucknell, and that is in a season of upsets. Should you pick a few No. 10 seeds or higher to advance to the round of 16 and make some bold upset predictions? That is your call. Could the Cincinnati Bearcats or Davidson Wildcats or some other team make a deep run? Of course. It can happen. But it is also as likely that they fail to win even one game. Picking a lot of upsets can be fun. But is it wise? In picking your Final Four teams, and I have already given you my picks, it is still smart to not pick any seed higher than a No. 4 or 5, while selecting at least one or two No. 1 seeds is a safe bet. Do not pick all four No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four, but betting that all four will not make it to Atlanta is a mistake to avoid.

Best of luck!