The Road To MetLife Stadium: Early Stats Favor Tom Brady And Patriots To Beat Peyton Manning And Broncos

The Road To MetLife Stadium may go through Denver on Sunday, but some early stats favor the New England Patriots to defeat the Denver Broncos, at least if you take a look at some of the numbers researched by Stats.com. We already know that Brady has the head-to-head advantage over Manning, including a 2-1 advantage in the NFL Playoffs. When you take a look at what generally takes place if the temperatures drop below 40 degrees, let’s just say that Manning is hoping for a bit of global warming to shine through into Sports Authority Field on Sunday afternoon.

In the spirit of full-disclosure, I’m working as part of the Road to MetLife Stadium Preferred Blogger Program. Throughout the year I’ll be receiving special access to MetLife events and be conducting reader giveaways, with prizes provided by MetLife and Sony Electronics. However, no payment was given or expected for posting about the program, and as always, all opinions given here are fully my own.

The scheduled forecast calls for a high of near 60 degrees on Sunday, with a low around 36 degrees. With this game kicking off at 2 pm local time, there is a strong chance that the temperatures will not dip below 40 degrees at any point during the game. But, if they do, a strong advantage will shift to the Patriots.

According to Stats.com, Brady has more starts (48), more wins (42), and a higher winning percentage (.875; minimum 10 starts) in sub-40 degree games – including postseason – than any other active NFL quarterback. Also, Brady is 11-1 in his career on the road in sub-40 degree games. His only such loss came in Week 5 of the 2009 season at Denver (20-17, OT; 30 degrees). That game was against the Broncos, but it is worth noting that Manning was still a member of the Indianapolis Colts at that point.

On the flip side, when you take a look at what Manning has done when the thermometer goes below 40 degrees, the news is not good for the Broncos.

Again, according to Stats.com, Manning is 0-4 in sub-40 degree playoff games, throwing just four touchdowns versus nine interceptions for a 57.3 quarterback rating; this is 39.3 points lower than Manning’s overall post-season rating (96.6). Manning is 1-4 in his career against New England in sub-40 games, losing most recently in Week 12 this season at New England (22 degrees). In that game, Denver had a 24-0 lead, only to watch it slip away with a late gaffe, giving Brady and New England yet another win in this intriguing rivalry.

As you can see, the Patriots and Broncos are just one win away from advancing to MetLife Stadium to play in Super Bowl XLVIII. We can expect that the temperatures in that game will be well below 40 degrees at kickoff. It will be interesting to see whether or not Manning and his Broncos can overcome some past problems and get the better of Brady and his Patriots as The Road To MetLife Stadium reaches the final few stages.

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About the author

Rob Kelley

Rob Kelley is a sports reporter for various newspapers in Florida, and is trying to break back into the sports writing game after a brief hiatus following the publishing of his first book, I'm Not a Quitter. He recently resigned as Editor-in-Chief and lead writer for The South Shore Magazine to pursue better opportunities. You can follow him on Twitter @RobKelley24.