The CFB Playoff committee is not going to have any easy job. It has not been easy since they revealed their first CFB Playoff rankings a couple of months ago. Now, with only the conference championship games remaining before the first four teams ever to take part in the inaugural CFB Playoffs, we are still really not that much closer to completing the bracket today more so than we were back in October.
We do know this much. With a loss in the Battle for the Golden Egg, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are out. Losing to the Ole Miss Rebels, while not a bad loss by any means, sealed their fate. While it was also going to be extremely difficult for a two-loss team to reach the field of four, the UCLA Bruins and Georgia Bulldogs also said good-bye to their slim chances with losses this weekend.
Those were really the only three teams who were potentially being considered for a CFB Playoff berth who saw their chances erode with a crucial loss during Rivalry Weekend. Now, with Conference Championship Weekend on tap for this coming Friday ad Saturday, here is a look at what the committee will be looking forward to when they get ready to cast their final ballot.
It all starts on Friday night, when the Oregon Ducks will battle the Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-12 Championship. A win would all but assure the Ducks of a spot in the CFB Playoffs, possibly as a top-two seed. They could even be the No. 1 seed, depending on what happens on Saturday. A win is far from guaranteed, however, as it was Arizona who handed Oregon its only loss of the season. For the Ducks, it should be simple. A win, and they’re in. A loss, and they’ll need help.
On Saturday, the first huge conference title contest will pit the current No. 1 team in the CFB Playoff rankings, the Alabama Crimson Tide, going up against the Missouri Tigers in the SEC Championship game. This one is also simple. If the Tide roll, they are guaranteed induction into the playoff. A loss would not necessarily eliminate them from consideration, but they would need some other teams to also fall on Saturday.
Earlier in the day, however, is a regular season Big 12 contest with CFB Playoff implications. In fact, there will likely be two of those such games on Saturday. The first will pit the TCU Horned Frogs hosting the Iowa State Cyclones. I don’t think that TCU could clinch a spot with a victory, but they may not have a chance if they get upset. The other Big 12 game will take place on Saturday night, when the Baylor Bears host the Kansas State Wildcats. Due to an earlier victory over TCU, many feel as if Baylor may have an inside track for a team from the Big 12, although the Bears also lost to the West Virginia Mountaineers and gave a lackluster performance in a two-point win over the lowly Texas Tech Red Raiders yesterday. There does remain the possibility that both TCU and Baylor could get in, although it would seem rather unlikely.
Back to the conference championship games. The final two will kickoff just after 8 pm on Saturday night, with the Big Ten and ACC taking center stage. The ACC Championship game is easier to discuss. The Florida State Seminoles, despite the fact that they have escaped with so many narrow victories against teams they should have blown out, are the only undefeated team in the country. Like it or not, if the ‘Noles can defeat the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets for the ACC title, regardless of how unimpressive it is, then FSU will firmly be in the CFB Playoffs. A loss would be difficult to overcome, especially with two ugly wins the past two weeks over the Boston College Eagles and Florida Gators.
As for the Big Ten contest, a win by the Ohio State Buckeyes will not get them in. Not without help. After losing yet another starting quarterback, the Buckeyes could have a difficult time with the Wisconsin Badgers. OSU is currently one of the first-four out, and will likely continue to be in that position after a closer-than-expected game against the Michigan Wolverines. A win in the Big Ten Championship will need to be impressive, and the Buckeyes will also need a loss by one or both of the Big 12 teams earlier to feel better about receiving and invite to the first ever CFB Playoffs.
So, where will things stand by the end of the night on Saturday? Will the CFB Playoffs picture finally become crystal clear? Or, will conference championship weekend cause more chaos than clarity?
Personally, I’m rooting for chaos.
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